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USD/MXN Week Forward: choppy price action to continue


Peso Price Chart

Supply: IG Charts

Most important USD/MXN Speaking Factors:

  • Mexico suffers worst financial contraction in historical past
  • Greenback weak point continues
  • USD/MXN restricted by downward resistance

USD/MXN continues in considerably of a choppy price action, not fairly discovering a secure route, resembling what is occurring all over the world proper now.

The rise in new circumstances of coronavirus has taken its toll on the Mexican peso, which, together with different rising currencies, is extremely linked to financial progress. Whereas the greenback has had a tricky few weeks, even having its position because the world’s reserve currency questioned, the U.S. currency remains to be the place many buyers flip to when confronted with an unsure outlook.

This weak point has triggered the USD/MXN to retreat from its late June peak, dropping from 23.20 to 21.85 in Wednesday‘s session. However once more evidently issues have turned in opposition to the peso, after Mexico suffered its worst financial contraction in historical past.

The Gross Home Product (GDP) of Mexico recorded a contraction of 18.9% within the second quarter of the 12 months over the identical interval final 12 months, which is the worst studying of the info in historical past within the context of the coronavirus pandemic.

Including much more bullish help for USD/MXN, the US information additionally raises issues, particularly after the Federal Reserve acknowledged that the way forward for the financial system stays very unsure, with the financial system nonetheless going by way of a really darkish interval whereas ready for progress on the virus.

Wanting forward, risk-sentiment is probably going to continue to be the principle driver for USD/MXN, as coronavirus circumstances continue to develop in the USA and Latin América. Greenback weak point is probably going to subside considerably as buyers continue to search for safer returns, though it’s nonetheless removed from being in a superb place.

USD/MXN 4-hour chart (22 Might – 31 July 2020)


From a technical standpoint, the pair continues to development decrease, however appears to be shedding vendor help. On the 4-hour chart we see how the USD/MXN has created a line of downward resistance since July 8, which we might see persevering with to help additional declines if decrease highs are sustained. Up to now the pair has discovered some resistance on the 50-period shifting common, halting advances at 22.22, shut to the 50% Fibonacci retracement degree that has been in play for a while.

The chance now’s whether or not USD/MXN can be in a position to get away of the 21.80 help degree or will it act once more to cease the declines. On the upside, a push above 22.23 could lead on to one other try to break the downward resistance line, now at 22.50, which could possibly be potential if the greenback amasses extra shopping for help within the coming days.

— Written by Daniela Sabin Hathorn, Market Analyst

Comply with Daniela on Twitter @HathornSabin

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