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Oil Price Approaches June Low Ahead of OPEC JMMC Meeting

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Crude Oil blue box

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Oil Speaking Factors

The worth of oil has slipped under the $40 mark to trade at its lowest degree since June, and crude costs might proceed to weaken in September because the Group of the Petroleum Exporting International locations (OPEC) rollback the voluntary manufacturing cuts in response to COVID-19.

Elementary Forecast for Oil: Bearish

The worth of oil approaches the June low ($34.27) forward of OPEC’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) assembly on faucet for September 16-17 as US crude inventories unexpectedly enhance for the primary time since July, with output additionally recovering throughout the identical interval.

Crude Oil

Oil stockpiles elevated 2033Ok within the week ending September Four versus forecasts for a 3000Ok decline, whereas the recent figures popping out of the Vitality Info Vitality (EIA) confirmed US discipline manufacturing climbing to 10,000okay b/d from 9,700Ok b/d within the week ending August 28.

Wanting forward, US output might proceed to get better following Hurricane Laura, and an additional decide up in crude inventories might maintain vitality costs beneath stress as OPEC’s most up-to-date Month-to-month Oil Market Report (MOMR) reveals a discount within the international demand forecast, with “the downward revision is principally to mirror weaker-than-expected knowledge in 2Q20 in just a few non-OECD international locations, along with contemplating the current adjustment to international GDP in 2020 from -3.7% in July to -4.0% in August.”

It stays to be seen if OPEC and its allies will take further steps to prop up the worth of oil as “the tempo of restoration gave the impression to be slower than anticipated with rising dangers of a chronic wave of COVID-19,” however the group might merely reiterate the “ongoing optimistic contributions of the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) in supporting a rebalancing of the worldwide oil market” because the COVID-19 compensation mechanism expires.

With that mentioned, extra of the identical on the September JMMC assembly might do little to affect the worth of oil, and the rebound in US output together with indicators of a protracted restoration might proceed to pull on crude costs as international demand stays subdued.

— Written by David Music, Foreign money Strategist

Observe me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

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